No major changes to yesterday's post about today's thunderstorm chances. Looks like 1:00pm-7:00pm has the highest chances of a t-storm with 3pm-6pm the bullseye. Diehard thunderstorm fans are extremely excited about today's possibility so that's why you're seeing social media erupt with talk about severe thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes.

1. PUTTING THINGS INTO PERSPECTIVE: Tornado Threat is ridiculously low (just 2% of one occurring within 25 miles of here). Hail threat over 1" is 15% within 25 miles of here. Wind threat of 58 mph or higher is 5% within 25 miles of here.
2. We DON'T get tornadoes here like what you see on TV. That all happens east of the Rocky Mountains and especially in the Midwest, Plains, and South. People in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas LAUGH when they see pictures of an Oregon tornado (they really do). See attached images on how a tornado forms.
3. Since 1950 (when tornado records began): 133 tornadoes have been recorded in Oregon. This averages out to about two per year and every year there has been at least one tornado recorded so this is nothing new. No deaths have been recorded in Oregon from a tornado.
4. Regional "severe" thunderstorm threat IS rare here and that's why you're seeing lots of hype. Weather enthusiasts are excited that they might see a thunderstorm or even have an opportunity to amateur storm chase. I don't blame them (see #4).
5. Bathroom Reading: In the late 1990's, I was a Student Intern at the National Weather Service while studying Meteorology. Every year I drove out to Oklahoma and spent the entire month of May studying the atmosphere / storm chasing (May is when most tornadoes occur there). Storm Chasers literally lived just for days when a severe thunderstorm potential exists. In the morning, would stop into local National Weather Service offices to get the latest data from balloon launches then drive to the "prime" location where instability was greatest in hopes of seeing a tornado. Most days were a "bust" meaning that either Mother Nature didn't cooperate and it would only be very humid and hot or would just have a basic thunderstorm with nothing to write home about. But those days were also fun because we'd eat at different restaurants and meet people from different areas. The next day we would start the process all over again by heading to the NWS for the latest data after breakfast. BACK THEN there was limited data on the internet and you had to plug your computer into a landline phone to download what little data existed (which took an hour). There was no wifi and cell phones were rare, didn't have a screen with internet, no text.