Thunderstorm Risk?

3 days ago
  1. No need to worry; let's talk sense and perspective:
  2. Isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms expected Wednesday, very isolated thunderstorms Thursday.
  3. Under the right circumstances, a few thunderstorms on Wednesday have a very small risk of becoming "severe." Severe thunderstorms, by definition: capable of producing 58 mph or greater winds, 1" or larger hail, funnel cloud or brief tornado. In the entire U.S., just 5% of thunderstorms become severe and of all "severe" thunderstorms, 1% produce a tornado. A "supercell thunderstorm" (very very very rare in Oregon, more common east of Rockies), only makeup a small percentage of "severe" thunderstorms, historically produce a tornado about 20% of the time. The majority of severe thunderstorms have strong wind gusts with small to medium sized hail.
  4. Greatest risk for a "severe" thunderstorm is Wednesday 1:00pm-5:00pm and mainly within the Willamette Valley (including Cottage Grove).
  5. There is no way to predict exactly where thunderstorms will form. Putting things into perspective, there's about a 20-40% chance of a thunderstorm occurring within 25 miles of any one point on Wednesday. Within this, the severe thunderstorm risk of 1" or larger hail is 15% within 25-miles of any point and just a 2% risk of a small tornado within 25-miles of any point.
  6. Total combined rainfall Wed-Thur (via showers) is less than 1/2" (higher if t-storm). Winds under 20 mph Wednesday (stronger gusts if t-storm) then 15-30 mph Thursday.
  7. Friday will have around 1/2" of rain/showers and 15-30 mph wind gusts.
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