Lots of rain expected, wind gusts up to 25 mph, snow unlikely below 1200'

November 3, 2022

Thursday - here's the latest: A pair of very wet storm systems will bring up to 2-3" of total rainfall Friday through Monday. Heaviest rain occurs Friday evening through Saturday morning when 1-1.5" is likely during this period. The second storm looks to drop another inch or so Sunday into Monday. This amount of rain will cause rivers, streams, and creeks to run high with possible minor flooding in the typical spots.

WINDS can gust up to 20-25 mph at times tonight through Monday. Typically, these winds aren't strong enough to topple trees. However, the soils will become saturated and with leaves still on the trees, be mindful that some compromised or weakened trees could become vulnerable (drought has also impacted some trees).

SNOW LEVELS: Above 6000' through Saturday morning, then gradually lower to 3000' by Saturday night. Sunday, snow levels start out near 3000', then gradually lower throughout the day and eventually bottom out at 1800' Sunday night. Monday morning 1800', then 2500' during the day. If a cold column of air passes over on Sunday, it's possible flakes or a dusting can occur in spots down to 1200-1500'. Snow is highly unlikely here in Cottage Grove.

LOOKING AHEAD: At this time, long range data hints that we "may" be more dry then wet Wednesday (Nov 9) to about Nov 20 with just one storm between this time period (on Fri Nov 11). This is not set in stone, but as I've mentioned before, high pressure across the west and North Pacific is affecting the jet stream and interfering with storms that would otherwise bring rain/snow to the region. Part of this high pressure is typical under a La Nina pattern and part of it isn't and has been a recurrence since about 2012 which is why drought across much of the west has been an issue. Anyway, odds still favor above normal precipitation through March.

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