It's Thursday! Scattered showers (maybe a rumble of thunder?) until just after sunset. Dry tonight through Saturday night (with some fog), then rain returns Sunday afternoon or evening (~1/2") into Monday. Dry Tue/Wed, then "maybe" a strong storm next Thursday (more details about this on Sunday or Monday). Temperatures roller coaster over the next 10-days. Cold tonight, lows 30-33°, then 32-37° Friday night, 35-40 Saturday night, and 37-43 Sunday night through next week. Highs low-mid 60's tomorrow (Friday), 70-75 Saturday, around 70 Sunday, then in the 60's next week. Normal high/low 64/40. Just over two weeks away the clocks turn BACK one hour (Sun Nov 3).
Major weather change to a more consistent fall/wet pattern occurs Tuesday night. Until then, unseasonably warm, dry today/Sunday, chance of sprinkles or a brief light shower on Monday. The coldest storm of the season so far arrives Tuesday evening/night between 7pm and 11pm. Typical mid-fall medium strength storm - expect around 1/2-3/4" of rain/showers Tue night through Wednesday, NO wind concerns (less than 15 mph), and snow levels above 6500'.
Another storm Thursday / Friday, adding 1/2-1" of additional rainfall (no wind concerns, snow levels likely above 7000'). Maybe some light showers next Saturday, then the following Sunday (Oct 20) looks dry (right now). It's looking like more storms will pass through Tue Oct 22 through the end of the month. WIDESPREAD FREEZING LOWS aren't seen through at least Oct 25 (at this time).
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3. More Space Weather info: https://www.spaceweather.com/
4. OUR WEATHER: Some light showers on Friday until sunset, then it looks dry Saturday through the end of next week. High temps will vary at 65-75, lows fluctuate at 33-42. Normal High/Low 70/42. As you know, it's abnormal for this time of year to have these extended dry stretches. Normal rainfall for all of October is 3.67". Still plenty of time to achieve this, but odds do favor abnormally dry conditions continuing through sometime between Oct 10-15. I know I keep saying this, but signals have been pretty consistent for the past 3-4 days that a changeover to wet may occur Oct 10-15, so keep your rain dances going.
5. La Nina is expected to peak at "weak" or "moderate" strength during the Nov/Dec/Jan period before it starts to weaken and fade late Winter / early Spring. What this means for us is that it's 50/50 whether we get below normal or above normal precipitation for the months of Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb with slightly higher odds for above normal precip Mar/Apr. Odds may get a little more clearer around November. Also keep in mind that, because of La Nina, late Fall and Winter may go back and forth with periods of good rainfall followed by extended dry spells (only a possibility, not 100%).
It's Sunday! Looking dry all week. High temps will vary from the low 70's to about 80. Lows will fluctuate at around 40-45. Normal high/low is 71/42. Storm that was previously forecast to come in Thursday is now looking like it will be weak and barely clip our area on Fri/Sat. So it looks like just some clouds and maybe some sprinkles or a brief shower (late Fri / early Sat). Strong signals that blocking high pressure may finally give way to storms frequently passing through starting around Oct 10/11, so let's keep our fingers crossed.
NEW WATER YEAR starts Tue Oct 1: Monday is the last day of the 2023-24 water year (runs Oct 1-Sept 30 of every year). We'll close it out with about 45.59". Normal is 45.43". On April 1, snow pack across Oregon was 95-125% of average, so we had a good snow year. However, a moderate drought still exists for areas east of the Cascades and south of Roseburg. Check out the below maps of U.S. precipitation and June-August (summer) average temperature departure across the west (Oregon as a whole was much above normal).
Wednesday's storm dropped 0.09-0.14" of rainfall in Cottage Grove. It'll now be dry until the end of next week. The strongest storm of the season (so far) may come in Thursday night of next week (Oct 3) and depart the following Saturday morning. Some signals that we could see 0.75-1.25" of rainfall, but this is very preliminary. Additional storms may also then pass through. More details about this on Sunday. Otherwise it'll be dry & nice with just a couple of warm days. Normal high/low is 72/42. Highs will be 74-80 (Mon/Tue warmest days), lows 40-45.
It's Monday (again!). Abnormally hot today and Tuesday. A big drop in temps starting Wednesday and we "may" then be done with above 80° highs for the season. Regarding rain chances, expect some light showers Wednesday 12pm-10pm and maybe some sprinkles Friday morning before noon. I still think a more fall-like rainy pattern will kick in around Oct 4 IF the stubborn high pressure in the North Pacific that's been blocking storms realizes that it's time for fall and goes into hibernation until next summer. Hope that YOU have a wonderful and blessed day!
It's Tuesday and here's a quick update: Much less rainfall expected today! Light showers (~0.10" total +/-) will end by midnight, then it looks dry for five days from Wednesday through around Sept 23. Next chances for light rain possibly around Sept 24, but there's uncertainties and we may therefore end up mostly dry. No significant storms seen through the end of the month (at this time). Odds lean towards a more consistent rainy pattern developing Oct 1-4 and odds favor at least near normal precipitation (3.67") for October as a whole. High / Low Temperatures will hover within 2-4° of the 76/45 normal for this time of year.
Fri Sept 13: A fall weather pattern has kicked in - almost an inch of rain fell on Wednesday (0.75-0.90")! Some light showers possible Saturday evening through Sunday evening (emphasize "light"). Next decent storm arrives on Tuesday, expect 1/2-3/4" of rain Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. No wind concerns. High pressure will then probably keep us in a dry pattern for about a week, from Wed night (Sept 18) through Mon (Sept 23). Then it looks like we may have more storms coming in for the last week of September. Very preliminary, October has signals that we may see below normal rain for the month with near normal temps the first half then below normal temps the second half.
Monday Sept 9: Rain on the way, fall pattern kicking in! Tomorrow (Tuesday) will be a transition day as a storm system approaches and moves into the region. A little humid today / Tuesday. Rain showers will develop Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. Expect between 1/2" (0.50") and 2/3" (0.66") of total rainfall. No wind concerns, breezes 15 mph or less. Temperatures will be close to, or slightly below, normal (see chart). At this time, it looks like a fall pattern may stick around through the end of the month with more rain chances and near to slightly below normal temperatures.
Happy Monday, it's Labor Day! Hot & Dry this week, much cooler and fall-like next week! Rain may come into the picture late next week (starting around Sept 12). AT THIS TIME, it's looking more a more typical fall pattern with temps much closer to normal and frequent rainfall may kick in beginning sometime between Sept 12-16. Check out the predicted temperatures chart below.
