Happy Valentine's Day! Don't ever forget that you all are LOVED! We're now all done with the winter weather across the lowlands! No freezing temperatures expected over the next 7-10 days. No lowland Snow. No Freezing Rain. No Strong Winds (just some gusts up to about 20 mph at times). Through the end of the month, several low pressure systems will bring periods of rain and showers. There will be dry periods of 12-24 in between storms and maybe some peeks of sun. Also could see some night/morning fog at times.
Another round of moisture is coming up from the south.
The NWS has an Ice Storm Warning but they also only predicted a high temp of 30° for Cottage Grove today. At 2:00pm it's 38-39° in Cottage Grove, at milepost 168 it's 38.5°, and at Rice Hill it's 40.8°. Way above freezing. These current temperatures are way too warm RIGHT NOW for an "Ice Storm" here.
Temperatures from Creswell northward are at or just below freezing. That's where freezing rain and/or snow will be possible right now to midnight or little later.
THAT ALL SAID and for HERE, temperatures are going to start lowering so snow or freezing rain may soon become possible here - after 4:00pm-ish. HOWEVER, it looks like temperatures may then actually go up a little starting after about 10pm so the threat of any freezing rain really only exists here from about 5pm-11pm-ish. That's IF temperatures are able to be at or just below freezing for long enough here in Cottage Grove.
Bottom Line: Here in CG, as of 2:00pm it's currently way too warm for an Ice Storm but temps are starting to lower and freezing rain with possibly a small amount of ice accumulation can occur anytime mainly 4pm-10pm-ish. Snow is also possible but really only light amounts expected. Otherwise, expect some light showers, maybe a rain/snow mix at times, and possible freezing rain once (and IF) temps fall 32 or below which would potentially be between 4pm and 10pm -ish.
Remember that when dealing with winter weather, forecasts can change in a heart beat due to so much complexity with temperatures and ingredients needing to come together just right for ice, snow, sleet.
Don't forget to bring all pets inside!
UPDATE ON FREEZING RAIN & SNOW POTENTIAL: RIGHT NOW still looks like freezing rain remains possible anytime between 11:00pm tonight and 8:00am Thursday morning.
Bullseye period for Freezing Rain is 1:00am-6:00am and could see around 1/4-1/2" total ice accumulation.
SNOW: Can't rule out a very light dusting of snow Thursday morning, but everything right now points towards Freezing Rain due to how the temperatures in the atmosphere look.
Precipitation will be coming in from the south / southwest (during winter rain typically moves in from the west/northwest).
STRONG WINDS not expected.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES: 32° or below anytime after about 7:00pm then should rise to above freezing by about 8:00am Thursday; any ice / snow will then start to slowly melt.
After around 8:00am Thursday, rain will be the name of the game (can't say 100% no to a rain/snow mix until 9am-ish). But definitely after 10am temps will be too warm for anything other than rain.
COLD TEMPERATURES: Tonight is currently expected to be the last day of the ridiculous cold. Then through the end of the month we may only have just a day or two of lows near freezing. Normal high/low is 53/34 and Saturday through possibly the end of the month we may see temps at or a hair above normal (keep fingers crossed).
KEEP IN MIND that when dealing with winter weather, predictions can change in the blink of an eye.
ICY & SLIPPERY ROADS/SIDEWALKS likely tonight through 9am Thursday.
Tue Feb 11, 11:00am: Very cold tonight (15-20°), a little less cold Wednesday night (25-27°), then near 32° both Thur and Fri nights. Yes, there is the possibility for Freezing Rain with maybe a small amount of ice accumulation mainly 9pm Wed-9am Thu - NOTHING LIKE LAST YEAR and ONLY for a 12-hour period. Strong winds / Snowmageddon not expected.
What's Freezing Rain? Falls like regular rain but freezes as ice onto the object it lands on and therefore adds weight.
Total Ice Accumulation 9pm Wed-9am Thur: can be zero to 1/4" to 3/4". Any ice is expected to start melting later Thursday morning and be all melted by sunset Thursday.
WON'T be anything like the 2024 Ice Storm: MUCH SHORTER DURATION, WAY LESS accumulation. Not going to have all these trees and branches come crashing down like last year and if there's any power outages it would likely be for only a very short period.
REMEMBER: 2024 Ice Storm most weak trees fell, massive tree trimming afterwards, and compromised power lines were strengthened and rebuilt. Freezing Rain this time will be much less duration / ice accumulation and branches around power lines have been trimmed so less chance of a power outage.
Threat of freezing low temperatures each night / morning ends Saturday morning; well above freezing during day. Saturday night onward is expected to be above freezing. Let's call this the big thaw!
RAIN: Two low pressure systems Wednesday night through Monday, up to around 2" of total rainfall. Some breezes to about 20 mph at times (not a strong wind). More storm systems may affect us next week but there's questions whether high pressure instead builds in and keeps us dry for several days.
NO SNOWMAGEDDON, NO ICE STORM, NO STRONG WINDS
VERY COLD: Remember to bring pets inside because it's going to be VERY COLD through Friday (then a slight warming trend starts Sat Feb 15). Highs all week 37-43, lows way below freezing (as low as 17-20). Normal high/low is 52/34. Then, for a change, temps may actually be just on either side of normal Feb 16-24 but a significant warm up to solidly above normal is not expected through Feb 25 or possibly the end of the month (Feb 28).
SNOW: Snow chances here are very low to none through Friday, but the best opportunities to see some flurries or an extremely light dusting is Thursday morning and possibly again Friday morning. So many ingredients have to come together just right for snow below 1000'. Next Saturday onward, snow levels probably fluctuate and stay above 2500-4500' (preliminary).
RAIN: 2-4" of total rainfall expected Thursday through Feb 23, as four to five low pressure systems pass through the PacNW. One or two of these may have a moisture feed so lots of rain looks like a good bet.
WIND: Strong winds not currently seen, but it can get a little breezy at times Thursday through next weekend with wind gusts of 15-25 mph possible at times (no biggie, this isn't strong winds).
OUTLOOK: I think that starting next Saturday Feb 15 we may then be done with lows below 27° until next winter (keep fingers crossed). Outlooks for March odds strongly favor above normal precipitation with near normal to just slightly below normal temperatures.
NO ICE STORM, NO SNOWMAGEDDON, NO STRONG WINDS.
VERY COLD AIR: Arrives on Monday, continues through most of next week! Lows 18-20 possible as early as Monday night, may not get out of the 30's during the day.
WAY TOO COLD FOR PETS: Bring pets inside - even during the day. Way too cold for them to maintain their body warmth.
SNOW: Chances of flurries to a dusting to 1" of snow will continue each night/morning through Sunday. Sunday night through next week the air will simply be too dry for any snow or rain but there could be some flurries in the air at times or drizzles of freezing rain at times (NO ICE STORM).
LATE NEXT WEEK: We should warm up a least a little. Lots of uncertainties and we may not be done yet with snow chances (depending on how the pattern sets up).
Tue Feb 4, 3:00pm: Snowmageddon, Ice Storm, Strong Winds HIGHLY UNLIKELY.LIGHT snow amounts likely (not 100% but close) this evening (Tuesday) through Wednesday morning - a dusting to 1-4" is possible (best odds are for a dusting to 2").
Snow possibilities of flakes to a dusting to 1-3" will then continue to be possible at times Wednesday through Saturday morning. Total combined snow from tonight through Sat A.M. may approach 2-6". Keep in mind that afternoon temps will be warm enough to melt most or all snowfall from the overnight / morning (if any snow falls / sticks).
Snow chances end at noon Saturday then we may be dry for a few days from Saturday night through Tuesday of next week (Feb 11).
There's some signs that several storms may bring us a lot of rain (no snow here) starting around Wed Feb 12. Still lots of questions and will update as soon as things become clearer.
NO ICE STORM, NO SNOWMAGEDDON, NO STRONG WINDS! Very, very low snow chances tonight (Monday), better chances Tuesday night through the rest of the week.
Very cold temperatures - bring pets in!
Light showers, light snow showers, and a rain/snow mix all possible at times through Saturday morning. Best chances to see light snow is between 6:00pm each evening and 11:00am each morning. This will not be steady rain/snow but isolated, scattered, to, at times, numerous showers. In any 6-hr period, zero to a dusting to around 1" of snow remains possible. Total combined snow through Saturday morning could be zero to as much as 4-6".
Way below normal temperatures (overall) expected through around Feb 15.
NO ICE STORM, NO SNOW TONIGHT (just a few very light rain showers), NO SNOWMAGEDDON, NO STRONG WINDS. Bring Pets Inside.
Snow showers here in Cottage Grove will be possible at times Sunday evening through Thursday morning with the best chances occurring 5:00pm to 11:00am each day. Lots of questions for Thursday afternoon through Friday in terms of if snow chances will continue.
Continuous snow event not expected instead varying between isolated to scattered to numerous showers and snow showers or a rain/snow mix.
Total Snowfall through Thursday morning can still be up to around 6" and it's unlikely to get anything more than around a dusting to 1-2" at a time during any one 6-hr period.
By now you've probably seen that your favorite weather app or website shows the cold temperatures expected all week. Some hints that temps may stay below normal until around Feb 12-15. Normal high/low is 51/33 so it will be brrr (but not the kind of brrr that you say when flirting on Valentines' Day)!
Fri Jan 31 11:00am: SNOWMAGEDDON / ICE STORM HIGHLY UNLIKELY but winter weather conditions that occur almost every year here expected! No snow through Saturday evening or early night, then periods rain / showers, rain/snow mix, and possible all snow AT TIMES early Sunday morning through Thursday morning. Monday night through Wednesday has the highest probabilities for us to see snow and is when most of the snow is expected to occur.
Not a "slam dunk" we'll get snow. Odds are fairly high (but not 100%) for at least a dusting to 3" total; lots of questions exist and all ingredients have to come together just right.
Total Snowfall between early Sunday morning and Wednesday night ranges from a dusting to 6", but this shouldn't occur all at once and instead be spread out over several days (up to 1-3" could occur at a time if enough moisture / cold air is present). Total rainfall can be as much as 0.75-1.00".
Freezing Rain like what we had during last year's ice storm not expected (currently) - this is a totally different setup to what occurred last yr.
ICE STORM UNLIKELY! Regarding Ice, temperatures at night below freezing Sunday night through Thursday night will cause icy roads / sidewalks so be extremely careful or avoid travel (especially 6:00pm-10:00am-ish (is when roadways are most icy).
WINDS: Breezy today but Strong Winds NOT expected (gusts below 30 mph through Saturday then less than 15 mph).
MUCH COLDER Saturday through Thursday and light breezes could make it feel like as low as 20° at times.
PETS: Unable to maintain body warmth if left outside, even during the day.
How about we take a SNOW POLL tomorrow morning via an updated post on snow possibilities but also with a poll?