Tuesday April 1: It's April Fools' Day but no fooling that you're AWESOME!

It's Saturday (Mar 29)! Dry today with lots of sun, rain/showers develop Sunday after 11am-1pm and continue through Monday with mainly light showers on Tuesday to just after sunset. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Strong winds not expected with gusts staying at 15-25 mph. Total rainfall Sun-Tue 3/4-1". Normal high/low 60/37. We'll be around normal today-Sunday then below Monday through Thursday.

Some isolated light showers possible Wednesday and Thursday, then DRY with lots of SUNSHINE expected Friday through next weekend and possibly into early the following week (right now Fri Apr 4 through Wed Apr 9 looks dry). Near normal temperatures Friday then above next weekend! This is how it looks as of the time of this writing.

Scroll below to see pictures from yesterday's "tornadoes," (wink) also read "SEVERE WEATHER" section below.

SEVERE WEATHER YESTERDAY (Wednesday):

No major changes to yesterday's post about today's thunderstorm chances. Looks like 1:00pm-7:00pm has the highest chances of a t-storm with 3pm-6pm the bullseye. Diehard thunderstorm fans are extremely excited about today's possibility so that's why you're seeing social media erupt with talk about severe thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes.

  1. PUTTING THINGS INTO PERSPECTIVE: Tornado Threat is ridiculously low (just 2% of one occurring within 25 miles of here). Hail threat over 1" is 15% within 25 miles of here. Wind threat of 58 mph or higher is 5% within 25 miles of here.
  2. We DON'T get tornadoes here like what you see on TV. That all happens east of the Rocky Mountains and especially in the Midwest, Plains, and South. People in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas LAUGH when they see pictures of an Oregon tornado (they really do). See attached images on how a tornado forms.
  3. Since 1950 (when tornado records began): 133 tornadoes have been recorded in Oregon. This averages out to about two per year and every year there has been at least one tornado recorded so this is nothing new. No deaths have been recorded in Oregon from a tornado.
  4. Regional "severe" thunderstorm threat IS rare here and that's why you're seeing lots of hype. Weather enthusiasts are excited that they might see a thunderstorm or even have an opportunity to amateur storm chase. I don't blame them (see #4).
  5. Bathroom Reading: In the late 1990's, I was a Student Intern at the National Weather Service while studying Meteorology. Every year I drove out to Oklahoma and spent the entire month of May studying the atmosphere / storm chasing (May is when most tornadoes occur there). Storm Chasers literally lived just for days when a severe thunderstorm potential exists. In the morning, would stop into local National Weather Service offices to get the latest data from balloon launches then drive to the "prime" location where instability was greatest in hopes of seeing a tornado. Most days were a "bust" meaning that either Mother Nature didn't cooperate and it would only be very humid and hot or would just have a basic thunderstorm with nothing to write home about. But those days were also fun because we'd eat at different restaurants and meet people from different areas. The next day we would start the process all over again by heading to the NWS for the latest data after breakfast. BACK THEN there was limited data on the internet and you had to plug your computer into a landline phone to download what little data existed (which took an hour). There was no wifi and cell phones were rare, didn't have a screen with internet, no text.
  1. No need to worry; let's talk sense and perspective:
  2. Isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms expected Wednesday, very isolated thunderstorms Thursday.
  3. Under the right circumstances, a few thunderstorms on Wednesday have a very small risk of becoming "severe." Severe thunderstorms, by definition: capable of producing 58 mph or greater winds, 1" or larger hail, funnel cloud or brief tornado. In the entire U.S., just 5% of thunderstorms become severe and of all "severe" thunderstorms, 1% produce a tornado. A "supercell thunderstorm" (very very very rare in Oregon, more common east of Rockies), only makeup a small percentage of "severe" thunderstorms, historically produce a tornado about 20% of the time. The majority of severe thunderstorms have strong wind gusts with small to medium sized hail.
  4. Greatest risk for a "severe" thunderstorm is Wednesday 1:00pm-5:00pm and mainly within the Willamette Valley (including Cottage Grove).
  5. There is no way to predict exactly where thunderstorms will form. Putting things into perspective, there's about a 20-40% chance of a thunderstorm occurring within 25 miles of any one point on Wednesday. Within this, the severe thunderstorm risk of 1" or larger hail is 15% within 25-miles of any point and just a 2% risk of a small tornado within 25-miles of any point.
  6. Total combined rainfall Wed-Thur (via showers) is less than 1/2" (higher if t-storm). Winds under 20 mph Wednesday (stronger gusts if t-storm) then 15-30 mph Thursday.
  7. Friday will have around 1/2" of rain/showers and 15-30 mph wind gusts.

What's that bright orange ball in sky? Plenty of it today and Tuesday with high temps in the 70's! Showers and scattered thunderstorms Wednesday / Thursday with 15-25 mph wind gusts. Showers Friday, dry Saturday (right now), rain / showers Sunday into the following Monday (Mar 31).

Friday Mar 21: No concerns for excessive rainfall or freezing temps through the end of the month! Area rainfall from Wednesday through this morning has been 0.65"-0.88".

Inspirational motivational quote. Failure is not the opposite of success, it's part of success. Text on wooden blocks background.

Happy St Patrick's Day!


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