Very small chance of flakes or a dusting tonight (snow levels to near 800' possible)! Lows near freezing tonight as the current low pressure system departs area this evening and a brief dry break probably occurs. The next low pressure system quickly arrives around 4-5am and with cold air already in place, can't rule out some snow flakes or a light dusting anytime from 4:00am-8:00am tomorrow (Friday) morning.
Otherwise, rain and showers plus isolated thunderstorms will continue through Monday morning.
Tomorrow through Saturday is expected to be breezy with 15-30 mph wind gusts possible. Tuesday through Wednesday morning looks dry then then next storm comes in Wednesday afternoon.
Looks like 2-3" of total rainfall between now and Thursday of next week but additional storms expected to continue passing through to the end of the month which will keep adding to the rain totals.
NO LOWLAND SNOW! Through Monday, four moderate to seasonably strong strength back-to-back low pressure systems will bring lots of rain (1.50-2.50") and 15-25 mph wind gusts at times (a 30 mph gust or two may slip in). A chance of thunderstorms will exist, especially tomorrow (Thursday) and Friday and again Sun-Mon. Looks dry Tuesday then another two systems affect the region Wed-Sat of next week (Mar 19-22) with more rain (0.75-1.25") and breezy periods (wind gusts mostly 20-25 mph or less). More/less typical weather for this time of year. Nothing extreme with strong winds and snow levels bouncing around between around 2000-5000' (no lowland snow).
Normal High/Low 58/36. Highs will fluctuate between the mid-upper 40's to low-mid 50's and lows will vary mostly in the low-middle 30's with a night or two in the upper 30's.
Sat March 8: Turn clocks AHEAD tonight - Daylight Saving Time begins tomorrow (Sunday) at 2:00am. Is there ANYONE who actually likes this?
COOLER TEMPS: Lots of chilly/cold mornings ahead! Below normal temperatures as a whole / overall from Monday through March 24. Normal high/low: 57/36.
RAINFALL: Likely dry through Sunday afternoon or evening. Four to five low pressure systems Sunday evening through March 24 will drop 2-4" of rainfall.
WINDS: Several breezy periods with wind gusts up to 20-30 mph at times (a gust or two of 35 mph may be possible).
LOW SNOW LEVELS: Wednesday night through Friday morning, snow levels may possibly be 1000-1500' at times. Can't rule out some flurries (or a dusting under right conditions) in Cottage Grove. Expect winter weather conditions over the passes.
NEAR FREEZING: Wednesday night / Thursday morning and again Thursday night / Friday morning will be the coldest with overnight lows potentially bottoming out at near 32°. Possibly again Mon night Mar 17-Wed night Mar 19.
NOTE on SNOW: I'm sure that many apps are showing snow here but please remember that lowland snow predictions are only accurate within 24-36 hours of the event. Lots of ingredients need to come together just right for it to snow here.
ODDS: Normal - above normal precipitation for April and near normal temperatures. Near normal precip for May, above normal temps. As a whole. Preliminary.
Just an isolated light shower through this afternoon (Tuesday), otherwise dry through Sunday. Next low pressure system begins affecting the area on Monday but there's some uncertainties as to whether the track will be aimed here or into Northern California. This will mean the difference of whether we stay dry on Monday with a storm system then moving through Tuesday-Thursday or if two back-to-back storm systems pass through Monday through Thursday of next week. More questions exist for Friday / Saturday of next week (March 14-15) which will mean the difference of whether it's dry or wet.
Right now, it looks like the storm door may stay open through at least around March 20, so basically expect a mix dry days with some sunshine and days with rain plus a few breezy periods of wind gusts to around 20 mph. Total projected rainfall to March 20 ranges at 1.50-2.50". Typical Spring weather (more/less).
Although below normal temperatures are expected overall through March 20, temps will likely roller coaster so expect some days to be at or even slightly above normal (mainly daytime highs).
TOTAL RAINFALL: Since the water year began on Oct 1 and to today (Tue Mar 4), rain gauges at two local weather stations are at 38.19-39.46". Normal to date is 30.49", so we're sitting at least at 125%.
SNOW PACK: As of Tue March 4, statewide Snow Pack is 93-192% of average. Our region, the "Willamette Basin" is at 93%.
DROUGHT: No part of Oregon is in an official drought nor is drought expected anytime soon.
No strong winds through Friday, breezes to 10-15 mph or less with just a few gusts to 20 mph possible.
Not a whole lot of rainfall through Friday (around 1/2-3/4") but lots of clouds.
Colder period (compared to the past week) Sunday through March 15-ish with high temps mostly 50-55 and lows 34-40. Could see a day or two +/-. Normal high/low is 56/36 so we won't be too far off at all.
Thereafter, Saturday March 8 through March 15 may have several storms passing through and one may have a good moisture feed to dump a decent amount of rain. May also have better chances of isolated thunderstorms too and could get breezy. This is still far enough away for things to change and there's uncertainties with details.
Generally speaking, outlooks for March 16 onward give better odds for below normal temps and above normal precip. For April, odds lean towards near normal temps/precip. May/June, probabilities lean at above normal temps and below normal precip. There's no skill in outlooks so be mindful this could change.
Look for a post over the weekend that shows rain totals for February / Water Year To Date, Snow Pack, and wind gusts from the Monday-Tuesday strong storm.
Tomorrow, Saturday March 1, begins the Meteorological Spring. This tied to temperatures and is different than the Spring Equinox (March 20), which is an Astronomical Event.
Two low pressure systems, breezy at times, 1.75-3.00" of rain through Tuesday morning or afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms with small hail.
WINDS: It'll get breezy at times with wind gusts of 15-25 mph through Sunday. Monday's system will be the stronger of the two so wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible.
SNOW: Above 6000'+ through Monday morning then above 4000'.
COLD: Nope through Sat Mar 1! Normal high/low 55/36. Temps way above normal (especially lows) through Monday, near normal Tuesday, then gradually warm again starting Wednesday.
Tuesday evening onward: Looks dry through Friday, light rain chances possible on Sat March 1, then maybe dry for 2-3 days starting Sun Mar 2. A cooler period possible March 2-9 but temps will probably only be slightly below normal and not excessively cold. Nothing extreme expected.
MAPS: Check out the maps below - departure from normal precipitation + temperatures and the snow pack! Aren't you glad we're not in the middle of the country?
Just a quick update since no significant weather expected. Looks dry after 10pm tonight and through Friday morning. Lows may flirt with 32° tonight + Thursday night, then well above freezing. Several low pressure systems will then bring periods of rain / showers and a few wind gusts to 20 mph from Friday afternoon or evening through Tuesday morning. Looks dry Tuesday afternoon of next week through possibly Friday (Feb 28, last day of the month). However this may change to wet.
Statewide snow pack is 100-196% of average with our region of the Cascades (Willamette Basin) at 116%. Water Year begins on Oct 1 of each year; Water Year to Date total rainfall since Oct 1 here in CG is around 31-34". Normal Oct-Feb 28 is 29.86". This means that BOTH snow pack and rainfall is at or above normal so far.
Normal high/low: 54/35
Happy Valentine's Day! Don't ever forget that you all are LOVED! We're now all done with the winter weather across the lowlands! No freezing temperatures expected over the next 7-10 days. No lowland Snow. No Freezing Rain. No Strong Winds (just some gusts up to about 20 mph at times). Through the end of the month, several low pressure systems will bring periods of rain and showers. There will be dry periods of 12-24 in between storms and maybe some peeks of sun. Also could see some night/morning fog at times.
Another round of moisture is coming up from the south.
The NWS has an Ice Storm Warning but they also only predicted a high temp of 30° for Cottage Grove today. At 2:00pm it's 38-39° in Cottage Grove, at milepost 168 it's 38.5°, and at Rice Hill it's 40.8°. Way above freezing. These current temperatures are way too warm RIGHT NOW for an "Ice Storm" here.
Temperatures from Creswell northward are at or just below freezing. That's where freezing rain and/or snow will be possible right now to midnight or little later.
THAT ALL SAID and for HERE, temperatures are going to start lowering so snow or freezing rain may soon become possible here - after 4:00pm-ish. HOWEVER, it looks like temperatures may then actually go up a little starting after about 10pm so the threat of any freezing rain really only exists here from about 5pm-11pm-ish. That's IF temperatures are able to be at or just below freezing for long enough here in Cottage Grove.
Bottom Line: Here in CG, as of 2:00pm it's currently way too warm for an Ice Storm but temps are starting to lower and freezing rain with possibly a small amount of ice accumulation can occur anytime mainly 4pm-10pm-ish. Snow is also possible but really only light amounts expected. Otherwise, expect some light showers, maybe a rain/snow mix at times, and possible freezing rain once (and IF) temps fall 32 or below which would potentially be between 4pm and 10pm -ish.
Remember that when dealing with winter weather, forecasts can change in a heart beat due to so much complexity with temperatures and ingredients needing to come together just right for ice, snow, sleet.
Don't forget to bring all pets inside!
UPDATE ON FREEZING RAIN & SNOW POTENTIAL: RIGHT NOW still looks like freezing rain remains possible anytime between 11:00pm tonight and 8:00am Thursday morning.
Bullseye period for Freezing Rain is 1:00am-6:00am and could see around 1/4-1/2" total ice accumulation.
SNOW: Can't rule out a very light dusting of snow Thursday morning, but everything right now points towards Freezing Rain due to how the temperatures in the atmosphere look.
Precipitation will be coming in from the south / southwest (during winter rain typically moves in from the west/northwest).
STRONG WINDS not expected.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES: 32° or below anytime after about 7:00pm then should rise to above freezing by about 8:00am Thursday; any ice / snow will then start to slowly melt.
After around 8:00am Thursday, rain will be the name of the game (can't say 100% no to a rain/snow mix until 9am-ish). But definitely after 10am temps will be too warm for anything other than rain.
COLD TEMPERATURES: Tonight is currently expected to be the last day of the ridiculous cold. Then through the end of the month we may only have just a day or two of lows near freezing. Normal high/low is 53/34 and Saturday through possibly the end of the month we may see temps at or a hair above normal (keep fingers crossed).
KEEP IN MIND that when dealing with winter weather, predictions can change in the blink of an eye.
ICY & SLIPPERY ROADS/SIDEWALKS likely tonight through 9am Thursday.
