It's New Year's Eve (Tue Dec 31)! Four weak to medium strength low pressure systems will affect the region through Saturday night or Sunday morning. Less than 1" of total rain and no wind concerns (just a gust or two to 20 mph - no biggie).
Then strong / blocking / persistent high pressure builds in for what might be an extended period of dry weather from Mon Jan 6 through around Jan 14-16. Fog will probably become a daily occurrence or more likely some night/morning fog burning off to low clouds that hang around throughout the day with little to no sunshine.
Before you say ^$%# about us possibly being socked in with little to no sun, just know that east of the Rockies will have to deal with a major Arctic Air outbreak that could last 1-2 weeks. So at least we're not going to deal with ice here. They'll get what we had last year.
Wishing you all a Happy New Year!
One more storm then dry for 36-48 hrs! NO STRONG WINDS, just some gusts up to 15 or 20 mph. Another 1-2" of rain through late Sunday, most falls this evening through noon Sunday.
So far this month we've record 6.25-9.20" of rainfall (depending on what weather station). Normal for all of December is 7.37" (this is out wettest month of the year).
Dry or mostly dry Monday and dry all of Tuesday (New Year's Eve) to about 9pm then another two weak to medium strength storms will bring 1/2"-1.25" of rain/showers between 10pm New Year's Eve and through Thursday (Jan 2) or into Friday morning.
Right now (could change) looks more dry than wet Jan 4-10 but depending on strength of high pressure we could get stuck in a fog / low cloud pattern with not a whole lot of sun. Freezing temps at night unlikely Jan 4-10.
This is early and low accuracy but Jan 12-31 looks to be be more of a wet pattern.
I hope that your Christmas was filled with Love, Peace, and Joy. I think that we can all agree that Christmas 2024 was "electrified." Looks like highest wind threats are done until next year (but could still see 20-30 mph gusts through Sunday). As predicted here, highest wind gusts last night across the area were 37-40 mph at Cottage Grove / Creswell. Eugene Airport recorded a 45 mph gust. See circles on map below - found a 114 mph wind gust at Silver Butte Falls which is 3973' in the mountains southwest of Canyonville. I also found on ODOT's highway sensors a 112 gust on hwy 97 in La Pine and 115 mph on hwy 97 halfway between Crescent and Klamath Falls.
Since yesterday to 12:30pm today (Thur Dec 26), 0.75"-1.50" of rain has fallen across the area, more on the way.
LIGHTNING EVENTS: A line of heavy showers and thunderstorms formed just offshore at 11:30pm and traveled east through the area to 2am. Leroy McManus' weather station in Saginaw has a really cool lightning sensor on it and he reported 71 lightning events, but this was likely picking up activity from the entire area from the coast to east of the Cascades. Lots of cloud-to-cloud lightning made for spectacular displays if you saw it.
WE'RE NOT DONE YET! Three more very wet storms through Sunday will bring 2-4" of more rain and wind gusts possibly up to 20-30 mph. Looking dry on Mon Dec 30-Tue Dec 31 with maybe another medium strength storm coming in Wednesday (New Year's Day).
Wishing You and Yours a Merry Christmas! There's no need to panic, we get many strong storms each year.
Strong storm today (Wed Dec 25), wind gusts of 25-40 mph possible 2pm today to 3am Thursday then up to 20-30 mph at times.
Expect three back-to-back storms through Friday morning then two medium strength Friday evening through Sunday.
These storms have subtropical moisture feeds so lots of moisture. Total rain now through Sunday still looks to be 3-5". Snow levels mainly above 4500-5500' through Sunday evening then above 3500-4000'.
Please stay away from rivers, which will be running dangerously fast and higher than normal from Friday through the middle of next week. Probably see some mainly minor flooding.
It's Christmas Eve! Strong storms start arriving on Christmas Day! Can we call agree that this is bad timing?
Christmas Day, a strong storm with a lot of moisture will affect the entire state/region with another three back-to-back medium to strong strength storms Thursday- Sunday.
Wind gusts here of 30-40 mph possible 4:00pm Christmas Day to 4:00am Thursday Dec 26 and up to 25 mph outside of this time period. Always best to be prepared for a possible power outage.
Total rainfall through Sunday 3-5". Rain develops Christmas Day between 9am-noon, heaviest rain (2-3") occurs 4:00pm Christmas Day to 8:00pm Friday (may be a brief break or let up of the rain Thursday afternoon/evening). Friday night through Sunday can add another 1-2" of rainfall with a couple of breaks possible.
Snow levels bounce around at 3500-5500'. Four to Five feet of new snow at the higher elevations!
Some flood potential exists around creeks / streams / rivers due to the excessive rain coming in and some melting of lower elevation snow.
Monday we start to dry out, but by then we will have had 3-5" of rain in just five days!
Colder temps expected overall Dec 30-Jan 7 and there may be some nights of freezing or near freezing low temperatures. A weak to medium strength storm possible Jan 1-3, doesn't look like a lot of rain, snow levels could be 2500-3500' at the lowest.
Sun Dec 22 Quick Update: Strong storm currently affecting the region is weaking and just light rain/showers expected to midnight. Next strong storm arrives later tomorrow (Monday) afternoon or early evening and continues into Tuesday afternoon (Christmas Eve). Some wind gusts to about 25 mph possible and up to 3/4" of rain. Dry or mostly dry late Tuesday evening (Christmas Eve) into early Christmas morning (Wed).
Christmas Day: A strong storm begins moving in on either side of noon Christmas Day and continues through Thur morning Dec 26 with another 2-3 medium strength but very wet storms pass through later on Thur Dec 26 into Sun Dec 29. Wind gusts to 35 mph possible noon Christmas Day into Thursday morning then to 20-30 mph Thursday afternoon through Friday or Saturday. Two to four inches of rain between Tuesday Christmas Eve and Sunday Dec 29. So some minor flooding possible and can't rule out a downed tree from the winds. As a note, 35 mph winds are not strong but because the soils are saturated it doesn't take much to push over a tree.
Looks dry Mon Dec 30 through Jan 2 but this could change. We will desperately need that drying out period.
Happy Winter Solstice, which occurred at 1:21am today! Days will now be getting longer and the sun sets later and later. Four to five storm systems will affect the PacNW through Dec 29. A few will be strong but not major.
WINDS: It will probably get a little windy on Christmas Day (Wednesday) with gusts up to 25 mph and possibly 25-35 mph on Thursday Dec 26. These are not considered strong winds, but with the soils saturated it's always possible for a 30-35 mph wind to knock over a tree.
LOTS OF RAIN+SNOW: Biggest concern is 4-6" of more rain here (on top of the about 3" that has already fallen this month) AND 4'+ of additional snow at the higher elevations of the Cascades. These storms will have subtropical moisture feeds extending out to north of Hawaii so snow levels will fluctuate at 4000-7000' due to the "warmer" air from the subtropics. The consequence of this is that when snow levels are high it rains below which helps melt snow already there. This adds extra water into streams, creeks, and rivers so those will be running high with possible minor flooding.
I-5 pass at OR/CA looks to have rain with snow staying above the pass through Christmas Eve (Tuesday) and possibly flirting with pass level on Christmas Day (Wednesday). Snow probably above pass level Thur-Fri. Biggest issue looks to be strong winds at times over the passes and not crippling snow.
No White Christmas, but a few strong storms through Dec 29. So far this month area weather stations show 2.57"-3.85" of rain has fallen. Normal for all of Dec is 7.37" and it's looking like on Dec 31 we will be +/- an inch of normal. Statewide snow pack is 108-239% of average; our area of the Cascades is at 136%. Through Dec 29, about five storm systems will bring 3-5" of additional rain and 3-5 feet of new snow at the higher elevations.
Windiest days here, with 25-35 mph gusts possible, looks to be on Saturday, Monday-Tuesday (Dec 23-24), Christmas Day into Dec 26. Heaviest rain/snow occurs Dec 23-24 and maybe Dec 28-29.
Snow levels through noon on Christmas Eve 5000-6500'', then above 4000' after 1:00pm on Christmas Eve. Dry Christmas Day to about 2:00pm then snow levels 4000-5500'. Snow levels could lower at times to 3000-4000', especially after the cold fronts of each storm passes through (but this is also when there's usually less moisture).
Starting Dec 30, it will probably turn much colder than what we've recently been experiencing and we may be in for a stretch of dry weather. This is still a ways out and will possibly change, but as it looks right now, highs possibly in the 30's and lows mid-upper 20's Dec 31-Jan 4 (low accuracy, may change).
WHITE CHRISTMAS BELOW 2000' UNLIKELY but snow levels could be low on Christmas Day. Six to Ten Storm Systems will affect the state through Dec 31. Some of these have the potential to be strong storms - particularly on Dec 22, Dec 24-25, Dec 26-27, Dec 28-29. But note that the farther out in time we go, accuracy lowers considerably.
Looking at winds, Mon-Tue could have some breezes to about 20 mph then next Sat-Sun may be breezy with wind gusts to 20 mph or 30 mph (may change still a week away). Looks like 4-7" of total rainfall in Cottage Grove (today thru Dec 31) and up to 5-feet of total new snow at the higher elevations of the Cascades (today thru Dec 31).
The closer we get to each of these potentially stronger storms the more clearer details will be, so just treat this as a heads up possibility and keep in mind that things can change. Bottom line is that it's not only starting to look like Christmas but starting to look like a more persistent active weather pattern may stay with us through the end of the year!
Low end strong storm will affect the region after about 10:00am Friday through Saturday night. Wind gusts of 15-25 mph possible tomorrow (Friday), then 15 mph or less. Light rain develops between 5:00am and 8:00am Friday and continues until the more heavier rain arrives at about 8:00pm. Rain keeps going to about 10am-noon Saturday then becomes more light and showery. Lingering showers possible to about sunrise Sunday. Total rainfall Fri-Sat 0.75-1.25". Snow levels start off at above 4000' Friday then gradually lowers to around 2500' Saturday evening.
Dry Sunday 8:00am-8:00pm then a medium strength storm moves in Sunday night through Monday. Winds 20 mph or less, 1/2-3/4" of rainfall. Some questions as to whether or not moisture gets drawn into the storm, which will cause Tuesday to either have rain or be completely dry.
CHRISTMAS WEEK: Maybe another storm around Dec 21-22 but the latest data signals are leaning at a weaker storm than previously thought. Also, Christmas Day is now becoming questionable since data previously hinted at a strong storm but now indicate high pressure may become strong here and block storms that would otherwise pass through. So if you're traveling or having guests from out of town around Christmas, regional weather hazards for travelers may not be nearly as bad as previously thought. But this is still far enough away for things to easily change. Weather models have been significantly struggling since October. Some of it is because of the weak La Nina forming but much of it is because of the persistently strong and blocking high pressure that been in place across the Western U.S. and North Pacific Ocean.
