More or less, typical Spring weather can be expected over the next 7-10 days. Periods of rain & showers through Thursday, isolated showers on Friday (1/2-1"). Dry here Saturday, Easter Sunday, and Monday before light shower chances temps return later Tuesday. Cooler starting next Wednesday. Having family or going out of town for Easter? No significant travel impacts across WA/OR/ID/NV/CA (Cali will have some rain but nothing major).

Since the start of the water year on Oct 1, Cottage Grove has recorded 34.76" of precipitation; normal to date is 34.27. Snowpack across most of Oregon varies at 102-125% of average. Just 9% of Oregon is in a drought, all of which is just east of the Cascades (Bend to Klamath Falls). Back on Oct 1, when the water year started, 54% of the state was in a drought.

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Thursday March 21: Rainy pattern returns but looking dry for Easter Sunday (March 31) through about April 3. Four storms will affect the entire region/state through Sat March 30, bringing around 2" of total rainfall between now and then. Wind gusts should stay at 20 mph or less, which isn't strong. Snow levels above 5000' through Friday then 3000-4000' Saturday onward. Can't rule out a thunderstorm here - especially Friday/Saturday. Cooler Saturday through next week, but lows well above freezing. More or less typical Spring weather.

Snowpack across the entire state is over 100% of average. Check out the precipitation map. Normal high/low temp 58/36. Sunrise 7:12am, sunset 7:27pm.

It's been a while (out of town). Looking dry through Tuesday and probably most or all of Wednesday (scattered showers Wed). A rainy pattern then returns on Thursday night, so Fri/Sat will be wet but no wind or low level (below 3000') snow concerns. A total of three to four storms will affect our region between Thursday and the end of the month (nothing drastic or extremely cold). Looking ahead to Easter Sunday, March 31, at this time it appears that it'll be wet and cool (may change).

Snowpack looks great (see map below) and so does rainfall! We've recorded 34.11" of rain since the start of the water year on Oct 1. Normal to date is 33.05", so we're sitting really good right now. Model data suggests another 2" of rain is possible through the end of the month, so we'll be walking into April with strong precipitation numbers.

Saturday Weather Update: Lows above freezing through at least next weekend (lows last week were mostly 25-28°). Three storms will affect the region today through Tuesday with up to 1.50" of total rainfall. Just about all of the rain will occur on Sunday and again Monday evening through Tuesday morning. It will also get a little windy here with some gusts up to 30 mph (this is not a strong wind).

Strong high pressure will give us an extended dry period of 8-10 days from Wednesday through Tuesday March 19. High temps Friday through next weekend could be near 70 (normal high is 57)! We'll probably switch back over to wet on around Thursday March 21 with a series of storms possibly bringing a good amount of rain through the end of the month.

Water year to date total rainfall is at 32.88" which is 106% of the normal to date of 31.11". Water year is Oct 1-Sept 30. Statewide snowpack varies at 101-132% of average for this time of year.

Sunday 3:00pm: Tonight to mid-morning Monday zero to a dusting to 1" possible in Cottage Grove. No concerns for strong winds. Very cold this week with lows in the upper 20's Monday night then mid 20's Tuesday night through Wednesday or Thursday night. Way to cold for pets to be left outside. Icy roads & sidewalks late night and morning. Maybe some flakes Monday and Tuesday nights but anything more not expected right now; zero snow chances in Cottage Grove Wednesday onward (at this time).

There's no question that cold air is currently in place. And more is coming in via two low pressure systems that will continue affecting the region through Monday morning. This will support fair to good chances for us to see a dusting to 1 to 3 inches of snow each night and morning through before noon Monday. Outside of these timeframes, some of the heavier showers during the day (through Sunday) could briefly cause snow levels to lower down to near 600 feet. Ice pellets are also possible.

A third low pressure system will begin affecting the area just after sunrise Monday morning and exit the region Monday night. The previously mentioned snow chances on Monday prior to noon are because the moisture from this storm will be arriving during the morning, when cold air will be in place. After noon on Monday, area snow levels are expected to rise to at least above 1500-2000', ending any further chances for snow in Cottage Grove.

High temperatures through Tuesday will be 40-45 and lows will bottom out at around 28 to 32 – ish.

It can still get breezy at times with wind gusts to 20 or 25 mph. Strong winds are highly unlikely in Cottage Grove / Creswell.

Up to two to three feet of additional snow is possible in the mountains with the highest amounts being above 4000 feet.

Dry weather is expected by noon Tuesday and may continue through the rest of next week and into the following weekend. Except there may be a little hiccup on Thursday with a weak storm system from the north clipping our area with just some light showers. It will also continue to be cold after Tuesday, with highs in the mid 40's to around 50 and lows around 28-33 each night.

Pets left outside will be unable to maintain their body warmth, please remember to bring them inside. During the day, a temperature of 40° and a breeze of 10 mph drops the wind-chill to right near freezing. A temperature of 35° and a breeze of just 5 mph drops the wind-chill to below freezing (30°).

12:30pm Wednesday: Winter Storm Warning is for elevations above 1500', NOT for Cottage Grove (elevation 650'). Highly unlikely that we'll get more than 3-inches of snow or wind gusts above 40 mph. Details on snow / winds:

That's how it looks now. Next update on Friday morning to address snow possibilities for Fri/Sat nights. If there's changes for Thursday night, will put out an update by 1:00pm (Thurs).

3:30pm Monday: The Winter Storm Warning is NOT for Cottage Grove! Can't rule out some flakes or a spot of a light dusting overnight (before sunrise, probably won't stick IF any snow falls.

That's how it looks now. Next update on Wednesday morning to address snow possibilities for the rest of the week.

First things first: THIS IS NOT A BMTP EMERGENCY (Bread, Milk, TP)! Snowmageddon highly unlikely, NO Ice Storm. Snow predictions are most accurate within 24 hrs of the event, apps causing unnecessary panic. All ingredients must come together "just right" for it to snow in Cottage Grove. The snow possibilities listed below are how it looks as of the time of this writing (11:30am Sunday).

WILL IT SNOW in Cottage Grove? Possibly some flakes Monday night-Tuesday morning (although unlikely, a dusting can't be ruled out but little moisture will be left with the storm). Zero snow chances Tuesday night through Thursday evening. Thursday night-Friday morning, a dusting to 2" possible. Friday night into Saturday morning a dusting to 1" possible but by this time little moisture will be left from the storm.

SNOW LEVELS: Above 4000' today, 2000' tonight, 1200' Monday, 800' Monday night and Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon above 1500', 2000-3000' Tuesday evening, Wednesday, and Thursday morning.

WINDS: Windiest days look to be Wednesday-Thursday when we can see wind gusts up to 30 mph. Otherwise, gusts up to 15-20 mph possible at times through Tuesday and on Friday.

RAIN: Expect 2-3" of total rainfall through Saturday morning. No flood concerns at this time.

*NEXT EMAIL UPDATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY MORNING*

It's Monday and here's how the next 10-days look, weather-wise... It will be more dry than wet through Saturday, then it looks like we'll switch to a wet pattern Sunday through at least March 2nd.

Today through Wednesday will have some showers at times (1/4" or less total), then dry Thursday through Saturday. Today and tonight will also have a small chance of a thunderstorm, which could cause a brief heavy downpour, small hail, and gusty winds. Looking at winds, just a little breezy at times today and Tuesday with gusts 20 mph or less. I don't see anything significant with temperatures, but next week does look a little colder - especially high temps. Normal high/low is 54/35.

Outlooks for March and April lean towards below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Keep in mind that this is just an outlook, is preliminary, and can certainly change.

El Nino is expected to dissipate during April/May, then a La Nina may form during the second half of summer and continue through Fall and possibly next Winter (check out the model predictions in the image). When La Nina conditions are present, about 66% of the time Western Oregon experiences above normal precipitation. We'll be talking a lot more about this over the next several months.


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